Riskiest demand assumption as a testable bet
Most smoke tests fail before launch because nobody wrote down what they were testing, so any result can be read as encouraging. Turning the idea into one sentence of the form 'people in segment X will do Y when offered Z' gives the page, the traffic and the verdict a single job.
First tasks
- List every assumption the idea needs to be true on one page
- Score each assumption for likelihood of being wrong and impact
- Write the riskiest demand assumption as a single testable sentence
- Ask a co-founder or adviser to restate the bet back to you